Gajalakshmi Paramasivam

19 December 2018

Lame Duck PM & Opposition?

This morning I comforted a close member of our family who lost her grandparent by sharing my belief that  ‘Feelings are Natural and continuous prayers.’

Then I read the daily mirror article headed ‘One tweet to break an impasse!’ by Mr Amantha Perera. I identified with the experience  of Mr Perera largely through  following:

[Dr. de Silva and fellow parliamentarian Mano Ganeshan both used Tweets to show that Wickremesinghe and Co were waiting at the Presidential Secretariat for President Maithripala Sirisena’s arrival. It was a blow by blow, filled with all the tension. As the tweets rolled in and the main media contingent was left in the sun outside the Secretariat some of the members used Facebook live to stream scenes from outside. Whatsapp groups buzzed with rumour as the country waited and held its breath. ]

Being less public and therefore more particular,   I myself share largely through emails. Both Dr De Silva and the Hon Mano Ganeshan respectively are sent  my emails practically every day. They may not read my emails any more than they talk to the common voter on daily basis. But unless they actively oppose it, to the extent they believe in the common voter – they would be empowered by my emails as if the whole that I am part of  voted for them. That is why  I say that feelings are continuous natural prayers.

Must say I was a little bit upset last night when I read that the Speaker had recognised Mr Mahinda Rajapaksa as the leader of the opposition in National Parliament. It did not feel right. I withdrew my supply to the Speaker and therefore the UNP – to that extent. But gradually I realized that this was why I was guided yesterday to write why TNA was the right group to hold that position. The article was headed ‘Australian ATAR & Sri Lankan Quota’ .  It was the Truth within me that was rendering the premonition.

The deeper analysis on the basis that each group is Sovereign due to its belief – revealed some very interesting results – especially about the February 2018 Local Government elections that led to eustress in the Rajapaksa camp. Now it looks as if they are going to experience distress through TNA which has opposed Mr Rajapaksa taking up Opposition Leader’s position. I was happy again. Whether the Speaker delivers or not – our belief must be upheld in Democratic Parliament.

The parallel of Indian RAW –  the Indian Media -The New Indian Express in this instance – invoked my deeper memory  within me and I found the evidence needed by the public – through their publishing on 12 November 2018:

Sri Lanka: Mahinda Rajapaksa leaves Maithripala Sirisena's party, joins SLPP:

[Along with the Rajapaksa father-son duo, former parliamentarians representing the United People's Freedom Alliance (UPFA) also joined SLPP, according to Colombo Page.]

Based on principles of Democracy, the Party name is like surname. An elected member is entitled to change surnames as per those  already in existence at the time of elections but not any non-existent party the time of elections.  This is because when there is a grouping – it is like in religion – with each group claiming to be sovereign.

An analysis of the Local Government election 2018, based on which the above change over seems to have happened shows an interesting pattern.

Out of the actual voters – in Kurunegala – only 49% were SLPP. This confirms that SLPP can claim to naturally represent  only 49% of those seeking the political pathway to self-governance. The rest needs to be on merit basis – including as per common law.

In Hambantota – which is traditionally a Rajapaksa area – SLPP’s share was 51%

Relatively speaking, in Jaffna – TNA enjoys 69% confidence of the voters and in Vanni / Kilinochchi  81% . As per the published figures, in the President’s electorate of Polannaruwa, SLPP received only 35% while the President’s own group – UPFA was second with 34% vote of confidence.

More interesting are the pictures presented by the Presidential election 2015. These show  that the President enjoys only 58% of voter confidence in his own home electorate of Polannaruwa – to be President and therefore to represent them at national level. In Colombo Mr Sirisena  achieved 56% . But in Jaffna where he actually represented TNA Mr Sirisena  achieved 74%. In the big  picture Mr Sirisena / TNA achieved 72% in Trincomalee , 78% in Vanni and 82% in Batticaloa. I concluded that Batticaloa result  was also confirmation of rejection of Karuna who joined SLFP. In all other Tamil areas it was largely rejection of Mr Rajapaksa.

TNA now has to deliver to its voters by dismissing Mr Rajapaksa from that position of Opposition leader.  It is also UNP’s turn to provide active support – in the way TNA did during the time of UNP’s need. If UNP fails – then TNA has the duty  to oppose UNP more actively in Parliament – so effectively UNP’s group UNF would not have majority power and the PM would effectively be lame duck PM.  Likewise his Opposition also would be lame duck opposition.